If you Sense that you Might Someday rue a “yes”, Please Vote “no” on Lisbon

Unlike the Irish, hundreds of millions of other persons in Europe haven’t been enabled to step up to the ballot box with our opinion of the Treaty of Lisbon. This makes me regard Ireland and the quality of democracy in your country with a tinge of envy.

Over the years, we’ve seen many incremental changes made to the EU, from the initial unassuming brainchild of a Coal and Steel Community to arrival at a Customs Union and the EEC, building up eventually to the European Union. Instead of being accidental, a methodical process is being revealed to us.

In my opinion, the Lisbon Treaty is the birth certificate of a supranational state that will subsume its parts at an increasing tempo in the years to come, downgrading and demoting them from countries to constituent states. Endorsing the Lisbon Treaty means the countries of Europe, which currently still resemble true states to some extent, despite already having handed over many of their powers, will each soon be rendered into something akin to Bavaria, which is a rather powerless regional entity that does almost entirely as it is told by the German Federal government in Berlin. As Germany itself gets bumped down the hierarchy, the former Kingdom of Bavaria will be pushed even further down the “food chain”, being rendered into something that will resemble an oversized parish.

“Yes” will trigger an epochal inflection point

I would vote no if I could, but after the defeat of the EU Constitution by the French and the Dutch, trickery and sleight of hand have been employed to keep me and a host of others from getting to have their say in this matter. Getting an endorsement of the Lisbon Treaty is exceedingly important to official Brussels, but Brussels takes pains to not telegraph its anxiety. With a cool hand, the Treaty is portrayed as just one step of many. In reality, some incremental steps are more important than others. Anyone who takes the trouble to read up on the topic can find substantial evidence that in vital essence, the Lisbon Treaty differs little from the Constitution that was previously rejected at the polls. It is constructed differently (in a manner very much harder to read in its entirety), but is in fact a tweaked and dishonestly renamed version of the EU Constitution.

The important thing is that The Lisbon Treaty will supersede our national constitutions when it takes effect, rendering them largely irrelevant. Is this not a tipping point of epic proportions? Indeed - an inflection point, when something very important permanently changes? What Brussels will gain by centralization in the event of a “yes”, will bring an equal and corresponding loss of control for the countries of Europe. Where are the guarantees that the voters who vote “yes” are not in fact permanently disenfranchising themselves? What is this, if not a permanent sea change? Too many unanswered questions dangle over our heads.

For most of Europe, to not be given a voice when the question is one of “do I permit my own state be made redundant by the new large state being born?” seems not just wrong, but very wrong.

More hopes are pinned on Irish voters taking the right decision than Ireland may realize. You are deciding for half a billion souls, with the Irish acting in effect as deputies of the rest of the European public.

The very way in which this is being carried out does not augur well for the future.

French and Dutch voters, thinking that they drove a stake through the heart of the European Constitution, now see – from a distance, with their hands tied, a warmed-up version of the Constitution served up to the Irish under a new name, accompanied by an information campaign funded with our tax money, run by people with a vested interest in the outcome of the vote. Estonian politicians are certainly hard to pin down on this. Not one of Estonia’s leading politicians has described what the final guise of the European Union is going to look like when the implementation phase is over. As Upton Sinclair once wrote, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” If something looks and walks and talks and moves like the Constitution of a United States of Europe, chances are very good that it is the sole (supranational) constitution that will be the dominant and primary law on the books for everyone in Europe in the future – the “mother of all laws”. These questions beg for answers in our country. We are still waiting for the true debate over the EU to begin! In Estonia, Parliament has decided that it will ensure the outcome by deciding Lisbon for us without getting the voters involved.

If Europe approves the Lisbon Treaty, you can expect that the EU will permit Potemkin villages to exist everywhere for a “decent interval”. Why not leave the Estonian public, for example, with the impression that their country still exists, despite mounting evidence to the contrary?

Brussels would stand to gain nothing by trying to ban the Irish flag or the Estonian national anthem. Symbols will be left to the peoples of Europe as decoys and consolation prizes. These will continue to be on display at sports events. Facades called national parliaments and national governments will also continue to exist with their clipped wings during a transitional period, in order to create a comforting illusion as though sovereign nations still existed at the level of The Netherlands, Ireland and Estonia, etc.

As the years pass and citizens of the ever more centralized EU get acclimatized to the new way that things are, our eyes will see national government and parliaments being converted into state legislatures and provincial administrations, probably not in name, but surely in function. Matters of substance were decided for all in Rome during the Roman Empire, and not left to irrelevant provincial capitals in Egypt and Britannia. In modern times, though he wields a good bit of influence, Governor Schwarzenegger of California is just a governor, and doesn’t hold a candle to the man or woman who sits in the Oval Office in Washington, D.C. The “Prime Minister” of Estonia and probably Mr. Cowen as well will have their influence reduced to more or less the level currently enjoyed by governors of Russian regions. This transference will be nothing more than a the logical progression of a trend cooked up by politicians hooked by a “large is beautiful” philosophy. The trend has slowly but surely been underway for decades and is now on the brink of revealing its true nature.

Ireland alone, through a “no” to Lisbon, can avail itself of the chance to keep local power throughout Europe from being transferred in a “make or break” big tranche into the distant hands of Brussels. That and that alone is what this referendum is all about - where decision-making power will come to reside.. Although much local power has already been transferred to Brussels, we around Europe still retain a certain amount power “up close and personal”. If, however, the Lisbon Treaty is allowed to replace the current game rules, power will come to be massively transferred into the hands of the EU bureaucracy. It may never return to Ireland once it is gone. A veil will also descend, keeping us from seeing how most of that power is used “on our behalf”, for the EU tends to be a secretive business and one with a democracy problem, of its own admission. Even on the level of local government, it is difficult enough for voters to try to instruct and rein in local politicians, but still - the closer to home they are, the better of a chance we stand of monitoring their behaviour and holding them accountable. Neither the European Commission nor the European Council, on the other hand, are accountable to voters at all. As the American doughboy song says, keeping Irish politicians “on the farm will prove impossible once they’ve seen Paris” (Brussels).

In the US legal system, persons sitting on juries are instructed vote “not guilty” if evidence of the guilt of the accused has not been proved beyond the shadow of a doubt by the prosecution. For Irish voters not certain that it is a centralized Europe that they want, I urge them to vote “no”.

If You’re not Certain, no Harm will Come from Voting “No”

Are we so sure of the compelling desirability of the Lisbon Treaty that there is no alternative to adopting it post haste? Is there a chance we may rue the day we voted “yes”?

From a distance (yes, we do have Internet in Estonia!), it looks as though Ireland’s politicos are experiencing pressure from above to secure a “yes” vote. When someone in Estonia is bent on having his or her way in a matter, when someone is pushing really hard, the locals will ask: “what devils are riding you”? In my life experience, when you are being pushed hard by someone else whose motives you don’t understand or whose motives may be not be in your own best interest, the best thing to do is to take a time out. A “no” vote will help to clear the minds of those who are not 100% sure about the desirability of the EU Lisbon Treaty. A “no” will give you time to think it through and rely on your own best judgment, instead of being rushed into a highly centralized EU.

A “no” on the Reform Treaty may vex Brussels, but will not end in catastrophe for anyone. Should it be rejected, the Brussels bureaucracy will doubtless try to push it through again in a new guise or piecemeal a year or two from now. Unfortunately - from my anti-EU perspective - is not as though an Irish “no” would be the nail in the coffin of the “European project”. Rather, an Irish “no” will give nearly 500 million persons a respite from a centralist agenda so powerful that it threatens to eradicate the countries of Europe. What if the Lisbon Treaty is a Pandora’s Box? If Irish voters say “yes” to the Lisbon Treaty, there is a good chance that none of us will be invited to participate in another referendum ever again, having signed over the critical mass of our power to Brussels. Those who vote “no” will be doing a favor not only to Ireland, but to nearly 500 million other residents of the big swath of European land that we collectively call home.

Juri Estam

Juri Estam is a businessman who lives and works in the Estonian capital of Tallinn alongside the Baltic Sea.